In This Article
The forecast path
The IMF's October regional outlook projects Saudi real GDP contraction of 3.3% in 2026 and growth of 7.9% in 2027, according to Asharq Al Awsat's 22 October report. It links the near-term weakness to disrupted hydrocarbon activity and regional trade and supply chains.
The rebound assumes energy production gradually normalises and security, trade and supply conditions improve. Those assumptions are part of the forecast, not confirmed developments.
Non-oil activity has a different profile
The report describes non-oil activities as more resilient than the energy sector, supported by investment and diversification programmes. A stronger relative performance does not mean every non-oil industry or company is growing.
The publication also reports average Saudi inflation around 2.7% in 2026, with approximately 2% in subsequent years. These are dated estimates and projections, not current prices or a guarantee about business costs.
Keep the source and scenario attached
This summary reports the newspaper's account of the IMF outlook; it does not present the figures as independently checked primary-table data. The central distinction is between disruption-sensitive headline output and the reported resilience of other activity. Future official releases will test both the assumptions and the projected recovery.
Source
Original summary based on Asharq Al Awsat, reporting IMF outlook: source report. This is attributed secondary reporting, not an interview or on-site report by Middle East Icons. Announced plans, estimates and targets are not completed outcomes. Figures reflect the dated source, not live market data.
